If you have a flight booked in the next few months — or have been planning to book one — you need to read this. The aviation cost environment in March 2026 has shifted significantly in a short period of time, and many travelers are not yet aware of how substantially their flying costs have changed.
What Happened to Jet Fuel Prices
Jet fuel is refined from crude oil. When global crude prices crossed $100 per barrel after the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran, jet fuel followed immediately. Jose Enrique Perez de Tagle, executive director of the Air Carriers Association of the Philippines, stated publicly that jet fuel costs had risen by over 90 percent since the conflict began. That is not a typo — jet fuel nearly doubled in price within days.
Airlines typically hedge their fuel exposure through financial contracts, which smooths out sudden spikes over weeks or months. But when the spike is this severe and this sustained, hedges eventually expire and the underlying fuel cost has to be passed to passengers. This is already happening globally.
What Has Changed for Philippine Travelers
Domestic Flights
The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) sets fuel surcharge levels for domestic Philippine flights. As of March, surcharges are at Level 4: ₱117 to ₱342 per domestic segment, depending on flight distance. These levels were set before the war began. A revision upward is widely expected in the next billing adjustment period.
For a round-trip Manila to Cebu flight that previously had a total surcharge of about ₱234, a Level 5 or Level 6 revision could add ₱150 to ₱400 per round trip. For frequent domestic travelers or OFWs flying home to the provinces, this adds up quickly over the year.
International Flights to the Middle East
Between February 28 and March 5, at least 114 flights were cancelled by CAAP monitoring, including services to Dubai, Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Philippine Airlines suspended its Manila-Doha, Manila-Dubai, and Manila-Riyadh rotations. Cebu Pacific halted Manila-Dubai services. Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, and Gulf Air also cancelled multiple Manila-bound services.
Services have partially resumed as airspace conditions have stabilized in some areas, but schedules remain volatile. If you are an OFW or a balikbayan with flights to Gulf destinations, check your airline directly before assuming your flight is confirmed — and purchase travel insurance that covers conflict-related cancellations if you have not already.
International Flights to Europe and the Americas
This is where the impact hits travelers who are not going to the Middle East at all. Flights from Manila to London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, or Rome traditionally route through the Gulf — often connecting through Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi. With those hubs disrupted and Gulf airspace restricted in parts, airlines are rerouting through South or Central Asia, adding 2 to 4 hours of flight time and significantly more fuel burn.
The consequences are visible in ticket prices. Economy fares from Manila to London that averaged ₱35,000 to ₱45,000 before the war have been reported at ₱70,000 to ₱90,000 on some booking platforms for near-term travel. Cathay Pacific, Qantas, Air New Zealand, and Thai Airways have all announced fuel surcharge increases effective March 18, with some surcharges more than doubling on long-haul routes.
Malaysia Airlines announced phased surcharge increases for Philippines-origin tickets beginning March 25, affecting all international routes. Batik Air and Firefly have also notified agents of surcharge revisions in phases.
How Long Will This Last?
The honest answer is: nobody knows. Aviation industry analysts note that if global crude stays elevated and Gulf airspace remains restricted for another two to three months, fare levels could stabilize at a new higher baseline rather than spike and return to pre-war levels.
Skyscanner data from March 9 showed one-way economy fares from London to Singapore averaging €1,650 for late March departures — compared to the pre-war average of €650. This is an extreme short-term spike driven by disrupted transit options, and it will partially normalize as rerouting options mature. But a sustained portion of the cost increase — reflecting permanent higher fuel prices and longer flight paths — is likely to persist.
Practical Guidance for Travelers Right Now
If you have a booked flight in the next 60 days:
- Check your airline's advisory page directly. Most airlines have published specific advisories for Middle East routes and have rebooking policies that allow free changes for affected flights.
- Confirm your routing. Flights that previously connected through Dubai or Doha may now connect through Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, or Delhi — adding time to your journey.
- Purchase travel insurance if you have not. Policies that cover trip disruption due to geopolitical events now have direct relevance to current conditions.
If you are planning to book in the next three to six months:
- Book early. Capacity on rerouted long-haul flights is tighter than normal. Cathay Pacific's Europe flights are reportedly over 90 percent full in March when they usually run at 75 percent. Waiting to book means fewer seat choices and higher prices.
- Be flexible on routing. Flights through Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, or Seoul — hubs that are fully operational and unaffected by Gulf airspace — may be cheaper and more reliable than trying to route through the Gulf as conditions remain fluid.
- Use miles and points now if you have them. Award ticket pricing is often slower to adjust than cash fares. If you have accumulated miles with any carrier, the relative value of redemptions has increased significantly as cash ticket prices have risen.
- Consider domestic alternatives for regional trips. For visits to Cebu, Davao, or Palawan, domestic flights — even at higher surcharges — remain far more practical than considering land alternatives for an island nation.
The budget Filipinos actually spend on travel:
For lower-middle class households, air travel was already a discretionary expense that required months of saving. At current surcharge levels, a domestic round-trip ticket for a family of four has increased by roughly ₱1,400 to ₱2,000 in surcharges alone. An international holiday trip to Japan or Thailand, already a stretch for most households, now requires meaningfully more lead time to save for.
The practical implication: if you were planning holiday travel for mid-2026, re-run your budget now using current fare estimates rather than figures from late 2025. The numbers are substantially different, and discovering the gap when you try to book is worse than knowing it now.
The Bigger Picture
Aviation costs are one visible component of a broader inflation picture that is reshaping household budgets across the Philippines in real time. How much of your monthly income goes to essential fixed costs — and how much margin you have for anything else — depends on your income level and province in ways that are specific to your household.
To understand exactly how the current economic environment affects your specific situation, our calculator uses live CPI, fuel, and Meralco data to show you your real income class and purchasing power today.